OH Leuven 2-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Kortrijk meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OH Leuven have collected 0.67 PPG across 6 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 0W 4D 2L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Kortrijk arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.67 vs 0.67) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 83% versus Kortrijk 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 50% | Kortrijk 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.00 xG and Kortrijk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.864 / defence 1.190 | Kortrijk attack 0.727 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.601. Data: 6 OH Leuven games / 6 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 27% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 46%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Kortrijk 2.17. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: OH Leuven 100% | Kortrijk 0%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 27% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG OH Leuven 1.00 / Kortrijk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.864 / def 1.190 | Kortrijk attack 0.727 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.601 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Kortrijk xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Kortrijk kick off?
OH Leuven vs Kortrijk kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
OH Leuven 2 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk part of?
OH Leuven vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 27% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both OH Leuven and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Kortrijk in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 0W-4D-2L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.17 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.86) and Kortrijk's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.73x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
27%
3.69
27%
3.69
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.39
1.39
Kortrijk xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.74
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.39 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, OH Leuven have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 0W 4D 2L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Kortrijk are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OH Leuven have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kortrijk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 0W 4D 2L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Kortrijk away?
Kortrijk's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 0.67 PPG; Kortrijk away: 2.00 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 3-0 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
2
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Kortrijk 2-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 100%, Kortrijk 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for OH Leuven and 0% for Kortrijk.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 67%; Kortrijk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 0% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of OH Leuven's recent games and 0% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Kortrijk tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Kortrijk 2-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.00 xG and Kortrijk 1.39 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Kortrijk attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 27% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 46%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 50%, Kortrijk 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with OH Leuven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.