Lommel United vs Antwerp – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lommel United at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Antwerp at Soevereinstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Soevereinstadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Antwerp have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.50 PPG versus Antwerp's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Lommel United trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Antwerp trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 56% versus Antwerp 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 59% | Antwerp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.52 xG and Antwerp 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.788 / defence 0.817 | Antwerp attack 0.908 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Lommel United's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Antwerp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Lommel United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Lommel United games / 38 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 50% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 24%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Antwerp 4.17. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 40% | Antwerp 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 50% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Lommel United 1.52 / Antwerp 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.788 / def 0.817 | Antwerp attack 0.908 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Antwerp xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Antwerp kick off?
Lommel United vs Antwerp is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Soevereinstadion.
Where is Lommel United vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Antwerp part of?
Lommel United vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 50% chance of winning, Antwerp a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lommel United and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and Antwerp in?
Lommel United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.79x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.86
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.48
0.96
Antwerp xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
5%
18.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.96 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 23W 11D 12L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp's form line: 15W 8D 23L from 46 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antwerp.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.74 PPG from 23 outings (12W 4D 7L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 6W 4D 13L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.15 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 23W 11D 12L in their last 46 games (1.74 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 15W 8D 23L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Antwerp away?
Lommel United's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.74 PPG; Antwerp away: 0.96 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 52%, Antwerp 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lommel United) and 39% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 30%; Lommel United have failed to score in 26% of games; Antwerp in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lommel United's recent matches and 30% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lommel United's recent games and 39% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Antwerp tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.