Kortrijk 0-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Kortrijk welcome Standard Liege to Guldensporenstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kortrijk — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Standard Liege's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.40 PPG (Kortrijk) versus 0.80 (Standard Liege). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kortrijk, 1 for Standard Liege and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Standard Liege winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Standard Liege trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 51% versus Standard Liege 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 41% | Standard Liege 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.47 xG and Standard Liege 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.748 / defence 0.948 | Standard Liege attack 0.939 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.429. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Standard Liege bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Kortrijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Kortrijk games / 39 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 42% | Draw 25% | Standard Liege 33%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Standard Liege 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Kortrijk 40% | Standard Liege 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 42% | Draw 25% | Standard Liege 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Kortrijk 1.47 / Standard Liege 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.748 / def 0.948 | Standard Liege attack 0.939 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Standard Liege xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Standard Liege kick off?
Kortrijk vs Standard Liege kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Kortrijk 0 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is Kortrijk vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Standard Liege part of?
Kortrijk vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 42% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kortrijk and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Standard Liege?
Record (2 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 1 | Standard Liege 1W.
What form are Kortrijk and Standard Liege in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.75x the league average against Standard Liege's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
42%
2.39
25%
3.93
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.74
1.27
Standard Liege xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.27 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 10W 11D 18L from 39 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 19L across 39 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.05 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.03 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
Standard Liege
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 10W 11D 18L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Standard Liege away?
Standard Liege's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.05 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kortrijk's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Standard Liege?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 3, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Standard Liege 1-0 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 47%, Standard Liege 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Kortrijk) and 53% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 32% of games; Standard Liege in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 53% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Kortrijk's recent games and 53% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Standard Liege defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Kortrijk 0-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.47 xG and Standard Liege 1.27 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.75 / defence 0.95 against Standard Liege attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 42% | Draw 25% | Standard Liege 33%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Standard Liege win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 41%, Standard Liege 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Standard Liege's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.05 PPG, Standard Liege 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.