Kortrijk 0-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host St. Truiden at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kortrijk have posted 2W 1D 7L at Guldensporenstadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
St. Truiden — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St. Truiden — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kortrijk have won 1, St. Truiden 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–3 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 50% versus St. Truiden 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 39% | St. Truiden 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.05 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.823 / defence 1.189 | St. Truiden attack 0.994 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.086. Data: 36 Kortrijk games / 36 St. Truiden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 30% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 42%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | St. Truiden 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | St. Truiden 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 30% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Kortrijk 1.05 / St. Truiden 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.823 / def 1.189 | St. Truiden attack 0.994 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.28
St. Truiden xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Kortrijk 0 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden part of?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 30% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kortrijk and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
Record (2 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
30%
3.29
28%
3.59
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.34
1.28
St. Truiden xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.28 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 10D 16L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden's form line: 15W 8D 13L from 36 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.11 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.22 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 15W 8D 13L in their last 36 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.06 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
3
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, St. Truiden have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, St. Truiden 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Kortrijk) and 28% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 44%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 28% of games; St. Truiden in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 39% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Kortrijk's recent games and 28% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kortrijk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk and St. Truiden finished level at 0-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.05 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kortrijk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. St. Truiden landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 30% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 42%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 39%, St. Truiden 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.11 PPG, St. Truiden 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.