Kortrijk 1-3 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host St. Truiden at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kortrijk have posted 3W 4D 3L at Guldensporenstadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
St. Truiden — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Kortrijk have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kortrijk have won 1, St. Truiden 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 52% versus St. Truiden 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 32% | St. Truiden 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.96 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.703 / defence 1.085 | St. Truiden attack 0.580 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.459. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Kortrijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Kortrijk games / 25 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 35% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 33%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | St. Truiden 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | St. Truiden 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 35% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Kortrijk 0.96 / St. Truiden 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.703 / def 1.085 | St. Truiden attack 0.580 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.92
St. Truiden xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Kortrijk 1 - 3 St. Truiden.
Where is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden part of?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 35% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Kortrijk and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.12
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
1.87
0.92
St. Truiden xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.92 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 8W 10D 7L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden's form line: 8W 4D 13L from 25 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.36 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 4W 2D 6L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.04 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 8W 10D 7L in their last 25 games (1.36 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 8W 4D 13L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or St. Truiden away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.33 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
3
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, St. Truiden have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, St. Truiden 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Kortrijk and 33% for St. Truiden.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 33%; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 42% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kortrijk's recent games and 33% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Kortrijk 1-3 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.96 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against St. Truiden attack 0.58 / defence 1.22, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 35% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 33%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 32%, St. Truiden 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.36 PPG, St. Truiden 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.