Kortrijk vs OH Leuven – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldensporen Stadion plays host to Kortrijk versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Guldensporen Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
OH Leuven's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Kortrijk, 0.50 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kortrijk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, OH Leuven in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Kortrijk 3W, OH Leuven 3W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
OH Leuven half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 50% versus OH Leuven 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 50% | OH Leuven 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.14 xG and OH Leuven 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.732 / defence 1.483 | OH Leuven attack 0.830 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Kortrijk games / 34 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 26% | Draw 24% | OH Leuven 51%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | OH Leuven 1.96. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 60% | OH Leuven 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Guldensporen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 26% | Draw 24% | OH Leuven 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Kortrijk 1.14 / OH Leuven 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.732 / def 1.483 | OH Leuven attack 0.830 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.71
OH Leuven xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs OH Leuven kick off?
Kortrijk vs OH Leuven is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Guldensporen Stadion.
Where is Kortrijk vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporen Stadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs OH Leuven part of?
Kortrijk vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 26% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kortrijk and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and OH Leuven?
Record (8 meetings): Kortrijk 3W | Draws 2 | OH Leuven 3W.
What form are Kortrijk and OH Leuven in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.73x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.83x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
26%
3.92
24%
4.18
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.85
1.71
OH Leuven xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
5%
21.57
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.71 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk come into this having played 36 games, going 20W 4D 12L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OH Leuven sit at 0.92 PPG from 36 outings (8W 9D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kortrijk's home form reads 13W 1D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Kortrijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, OH Leuven have taken 0.94 points per game from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
OH Leuven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 20W 4D 12L in their last 36 games (1.78 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 8W 9D 19L in their last 36 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or OH Leuven away?
Kortrijk's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 2.22 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 3-0 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
2
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and OH Leuven?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Kortrijk 2-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 56%, OH Leuven 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Kortrijk) and 44% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OH Leuven in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Kortrijk's games and 56% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Kortrijk's recent games and 44% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.