Kortrijk 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Kortrijk take on Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kortrijk and Charleroi meet at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kortrijk at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Charleroi's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Charleroi edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Kortrijk 0–1 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 50% versus Charleroi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 57% | Charleroi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.01 xG and Charleroi 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.591 / defence 1.124 | Charleroi attack 0.667 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.239. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.591 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Charleroi's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 57 games and Charleroi's last 56.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 34% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 30%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.93 | Draw 2.78 | Charleroi 3.35. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 50% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 34% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Kortrijk 1.01 / Charleroi 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.591 / def 1.124 | Charleroi attack 0.667 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Charleroi xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Kortrijk vs Charleroi kick off?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Kortrijk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Charleroi part of?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 34% chance of winning, Charleroi a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kortrijk and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Kortrijk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.59x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.67x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Kortrijk's last 57 games and Charleroi's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
36%
2.78
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
1.94
0.93
Charleroi xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.93 for Charleroi, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 11W 13D 32L from 56 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 24L across 56 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 6W 8D 13L from their last 27 home games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 7D 13L across their last 27 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.23 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
Kortrijk (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kortrijk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 11W 13D 32L in their last 56 games (0.82 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 0.96 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
2
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kortrijk have won 1, Charleroi have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 48%, Charleroi 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kortrijk) and 52% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 33%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 41% of games; Charleroi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kortrijk and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 52% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kortrijk and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kortrijk's recent games and 52% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 63% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Charleroi 1-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.01 xG and Charleroi 0.93 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.59 / defence 1.12 against Charleroi attack 0.67 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 34% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 57%, Charleroi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.