Kortrijk 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Kortrijk take on Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kortrijk and Charleroi meet at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk at Guldensporenstadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kortrijk, 2 for Charleroi and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 50% versus Charleroi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 57% | Charleroi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.01 xG and Charleroi 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.591 / defence 1.124 | Charleroi attack 0.667 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.239. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.591 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Kortrijk games / 56 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 34% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 30%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Charleroi 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 34% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Kortrijk 1.01 / Charleroi 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.591 / def 1.124 | Charleroi attack 0.667 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Charleroi xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Charleroi kick off?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Kortrijk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Charleroi part of?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 34% chance of winning, Charleroi a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kortrijk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Record (5 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.59x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.67x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
36%
2.78
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
1.94
0.93
Charleroi xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.93 for Charleroi, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 11W 13D 32L from 56 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 24L across 56 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 6W 8D 13L from 27 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 7D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.23 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 11W 13D 32L in their last 56 games (0.82 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 0.96 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
3
Draws
6
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 1, Charleroi have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2024, when Kortrijk 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 48%, Charleroi 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kortrijk) and 52% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 33%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 41% of games; Charleroi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 52% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kortrijk's recent games and 52% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Charleroi 1-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.01 xG and Charleroi 0.93 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.59 / defence 1.12 against Charleroi attack 0.67 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 34% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 57%, Charleroi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.