Gent 1-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gent and St. Truiden meet at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Gent (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 4W 2D 4L at Planet Group Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
St. Truiden have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Gent against 1.40 for St. Truiden. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Gent, 2 for St. Truiden and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 1–3 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gent half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 47% versus St. Truiden 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 53% | St. Truiden 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.62 xG and St. Truiden 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.311 / defence 0.908 | St. Truiden attack 1.117 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.024. Gent carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Gent games / 45 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 50% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 24%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | St. Truiden 4.17. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gent 50% | St. Truiden 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 50% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Gent 1.62 / St. Truiden 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.311 / def 0.908 | St. Truiden attack 1.117 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Gent (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.04
St. Truiden xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs St. Truiden kick off?
Gent vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Gent 1 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is Gent vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs St. Truiden part of?
Gent vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 50% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gent and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and St. Truiden?
Record (7 meetings): Gent 3W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 2W.
What form are Gent and St. Truiden in?
Gent (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.31) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.12x) against Gent's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.87
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Gent xG
Total xG
2.66
1.04
St. Truiden xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
5%
21.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Gent and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Gent and 1.04 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gent's recent record stands at 16W 16D 19L from 51 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 19L across 51 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Gent against 1.33 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gent have managed 10W 6D 9L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gent are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.39 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 16W 16D 19L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 18W 14D 19L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or St. Truiden away?
Gent's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.44 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Gent or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gent
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gent and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 48%, St. Truiden 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Gent) and 56% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Gent's games and 68% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Gent's recent games and 56% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Gent 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Gent 1-2 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.62 xG and St. Truiden 1.04 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against St. Truiden attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 50% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 24%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a St. Truiden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 53%, St. Truiden 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.25 PPG, St. Truiden 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.