Gent 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gent at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Charleroi travel to Ghelamco Arena to take on Gent. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 January 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gent — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's home record at Ghelamco Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Gent have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gent register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charleroi in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gent, 2 for Charleroi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 46% versus Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 49% | Charleroi 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.85 xG and Charleroi 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.035 / defence 0.810 | Charleroi attack 1.012 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.380. Data: 54 Gent games / 53 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 54% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 23%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Charleroi 4.35. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Gent 60% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ghelamco Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 54% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Gent 1.85 / Charleroi 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.035 / def 0.810 | Charleroi attack 1.012 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Gent (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Charleroi xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Charleroi kick off?
Gent vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 19 January 2023 at Ghelamco Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Gent 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Gent vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Ghelamco Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Charleroi part of?
Gent vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 54% chance of winning, Charleroi a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gent and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
Record (3 meetings): Gent 1W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Gent and Charleroi in?
Gent (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.03) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.40
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Gent xG
Total xG
2.98
1.13
Charleroi xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
4%
27.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Gent and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Gent and 1.13 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 32W 12D 15L from 59 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 23L across 59 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.83 PPG, Charleroi on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gent have managed 18W 4D 7L from 29 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 13W 4D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.54 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Gent have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 32W 12D 15L in their last 59 games (1.83 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 25W 11D 23L in their last 59 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Charleroi away?
Gent's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Gent or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Charleroi in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gent and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gent have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gent
2
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 5, Charleroi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Charleroi?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 52%, Charleroi 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Gent and 76% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Gent's games and 59% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Gent's matches and 76% of Charleroi's.
Do Gent and Charleroi tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gent's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent and Charleroi finished level at 0-0 at Ghelamco Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.85 xG and Charleroi 1.13 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gent fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.03 / defence 0.81 against Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 54% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 23%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 49%, Charleroi 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.83 PPG, Charleroi 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.