Gent 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Gent welcome Antwerp to GHELAMCO-arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 6W 2D 2L at GHELAMCO-arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gent 1.90 PPG, Antwerp 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Gent in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Antwerp in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 48% versus Antwerp 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 44% | Antwerp 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.40 xG and Antwerp 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.185 / defence 1.037 | Antwerp attack 0.809 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.464. Data: 24 Gent games / 23 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 41% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 32%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Antwerp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gent 70% | Antwerp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: GHELAMCO-arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 41% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Gent 1.40 / Antwerp 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.185 / def 1.037 | Antwerp attack 0.809 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Gent (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Antwerp xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Antwerp kick off?
Gent vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at GHELAMCO-arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Antwerp?
Gent 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Gent vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at GHELAMCO-arena.
What competition is Gent vs Antwerp part of?
Gent vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 41% chance of winning, Antwerp a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gent and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and Antwerp in?
Gent (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Antwerp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gent's attack at 1.19x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.73
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gent xG
Total xG
2.63
1.23
Antwerp xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Gent and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gent and 1.23 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 7D 6L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (13W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.61 PPG, Antwerp on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gent's home form reads 7W 2D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Gent are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.82 points per game from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.87 scored and 1.13 conceded. Antwerp's attacking output running into Gent's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 13W 5D 5L in their last 23 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Antwerp away?
Gent's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.09 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Gent or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Antwerp in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gent and Antwerp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2025, when Antwerp won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gent
3
Draws
4
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 3, Antwerp have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Gent 0-2 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gent at 64%, Antwerp at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gent) and 54% (Antwerp).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gent's games and 73% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Gent's recent games and 54% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Antwerp tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Gent 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Gent 0-1 at GHELAMCO-arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.40 xG and Antwerp 1.23 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gent fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Antwerp attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 41% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 32%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 44%, Antwerp 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.61 PPG, Antwerp 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.