Gent 1-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gent host Anderlecht at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 4W 2D 4L at Planet Group Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Anderlecht — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gent at 1.20 PPG versus Anderlecht's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Anderlecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Gent's 2 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Anderlecht winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Anderlecht have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 49% versus Anderlecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 51% | Anderlecht 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.84 xG and Anderlecht 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.144 / defence 0.951 | Anderlecht attack 0.974 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Anderlecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Gent's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Gent games / 60 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 52% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Anderlecht 4.00. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Gent 40% | Anderlecht 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 37 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 52% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Gent 1.84 / Anderlecht 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.144 / def 0.951 | Anderlecht attack 0.974 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Gent (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Anderlecht xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Anderlecht kick off?
Gent vs Anderlecht kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Gent 1 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Gent vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Anderlecht part of?
Gent vs Anderlecht is a Championship Group - 37 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 52% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gent and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
Record (9 meetings): Gent 2W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 6W.
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in?
Gent (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gent's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.38
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Gent xG
Total xG
3.06
1.22
Anderlecht xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
4%
24.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Gent and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Gent and 1.22 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Gent have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 25W 21D 30L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Anderlecht's form line: 32W 15D 29L from 76 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.26 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gent have posted 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (15W 8D 15L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 14W 7D 17L from 38 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gent are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.50 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Anderlecht in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 25W 21D 30L in their last 76 games (1.26 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 32W 15D 29L in their last 76 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Anderlecht away?
Gent's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.39 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Gent or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2024, when Anderlecht won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gent
2
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 2, Anderlecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gent 1-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 50%, Anderlecht 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gent) and 40% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gent's recent matches and 40% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gent's recent games and 40% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent and Anderlecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent and Anderlecht finished level at 1-1 at Planet Group Arena, Championship Group - 37, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.84 xG and Anderlecht 1.22 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gent fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Anderlecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 52% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 25%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 51%, Anderlecht 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.26 PPG, Anderlecht 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.