Genk 1-1 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Genk at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Cercle Brugge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genk host Cercle Brugge at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genk stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's home record at Cegeka Arena: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Cercle Brugge have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.17 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Genk have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cercle Brugge in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genk 62% and Cercle Brugge 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 69% | Cercle Brugge 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.60 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.057 / defence 1.193 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.838 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.449. Cercle Brugge bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Genk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Genk games / 13 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 41% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 35%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Cercle Brugge 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genk 33% | Cercle Brugge 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 41% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Genk 1.60 / Cercle Brugge 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.057 / def 1.193 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.838 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Genk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Cercle Brugge xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Genk vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Cercle Brugge?
Genk 1 - 1 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Genk vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Genk vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 41% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Genk and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Cercle Brugge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Cercle Brugge in?
Genk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genk's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Cercle Brugge's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
41%
2.42
24%
4.17
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Genk xG
Total xG
3.05
1.45
Cercle Brugge xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
7%
14.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Genk and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Genk and 1.45 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genk come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 2D 5L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cercle Brugge sit at 0.69 PPG from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Cercle Brugge — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Genk's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Cercle Brugge have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 0.69 PPG overall record — Cercle Brugge travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.00 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Cercle Brugge in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Genk's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.67 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Cercle Brugge won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genk
5
Draws
1
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 4, Cercle Brugge have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Genk 1-1 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Cercle Brugge?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 33%, Cercle Brugge 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Genk and 67% for Cercle Brugge. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Cercle Brugge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Genk's games and 83% of Cercle Brugge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Genk's matches and 67% of Cercle Brugge's.
Do Genk and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk and Cercle Brugge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk and Cercle Brugge finished level at 1-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.60 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.45 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.06 / defence 1.19 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 41% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 35%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 69%, Cercle Brugge 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.