Genk 1-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: D L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.75 points per game. Last five: L D W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.75 vs 1.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Genk register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Anderlecht in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genk 75% and Anderlecht 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genk 75% | Anderlecht 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.83 xG and Anderlecht 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.375 / defence 1.218 | Anderlecht attack 0.840 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.600. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 Genk games / 4 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 43% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 35%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Anderlecht 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Genk 75% | Anderlecht 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 43% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Genk 1.83 / Anderlecht 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.375 / def 1.218 | Anderlecht attack 0.840 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.600 • Poisson stance: Genk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Anderlecht xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Genk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Genk 1 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Genk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Anderlecht part of?
Genk vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 43% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Genk and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in?
Genk (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.38x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.84x) against Genk's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
43%
2.33
22%
4.49
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Genk xG
Total xG
3.47
1.64
Anderlecht xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Genk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Genk and 1.64 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Genk against 1.75 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Anderlecht in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Genk
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Genk 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Anderlecht?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Genk, 75% for Anderlecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Genk and 75% for Anderlecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Genk's games and 75% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Genk's matches and 75% of Anderlecht's.
Do Genk and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Anderlecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Anderlecht 1-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.83 xG and Anderlecht 1.64 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Anderlecht landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.38 / defence 1.22 against Anderlecht attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 43% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 35%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 75%, Anderlecht 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.75 PPG, Anderlecht 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.