Charleroi 1-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charleroi face Standard Liege.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group - 2). The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 19:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Standard Liege stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Standard Liege away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.10 PPG, Standard Liege 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Charleroi, 1 for Standard Liege and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Charleroi 1–1 Standard Liege — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Standard Liege trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus Standard Liege 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 42% | Standard Liege 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.43 xG and Standard Liege 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.889 / defence 0.909 | Standard Liege attack 0.875 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.113. Data: built from Charleroi's last 60 games and Standard Liege's last 60.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 21%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.10 | Draw 3.19 | Standard Liege 4.73. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liege 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 2 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Charleroi 1.43 / Standard Liege 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.889 / def 0.909 | Standard Liege attack 0.875 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Standard Liege xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 1 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Play-off Group - 2) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 48% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.89) and Standard Liege's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 60 games and Standard Liege's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.19
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.31
0.89
Standard Liege xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
19.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.89 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 22W 17D 28L from 67 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 25L across 67 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.24 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 14W 9D 10L from their last 33 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 5W 11D 17L across their last 33 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.01 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
Charleroi (Home) vs Standard Liege (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 17D 28L in their last 67 games (1.24 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 18W 24D 25L in their last 67 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.55 PPG; Standard Liege away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Charleroi
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 5, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Standard Liege 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, Standard Liege 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Charleroi) and 64% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Standard Liege in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Standard Liege matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Charleroi's games and 58% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and Standard Liege matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Charleroi's recent games and 64% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Charleroi's recent matches and 76% of Standard Liege's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Standard Liege 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Standard Liege 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.43 xG and Standard Liege 0.89 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Standard Liege attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 21%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 42%, Standard Liege 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liege's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.24 PPG, Standard Liege 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.