Charleroi 3-2 KV Mechelen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs KV Mechelen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus KV Mechelen in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Charleroi (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KV Mechelen have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, KV Mechelen have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Charleroi against 1.00 for KV Mechelen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
KV Mechelen — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 42% versus KV Mechelen 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 63% | KV Mechelen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.77 xG and KV Mechelen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.017 / defence 0.920 | KV Mechelen attack 0.787 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.308. KV Mechelen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Charleroi games / 34 KV Mechelen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 20%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | KV Mechelen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 30% | KV Mechelen 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs KV Mechelen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 5 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Charleroi 1.77 / KV Mechelen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.017 / def 0.920 | KV Mechelen attack 0.787 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.95
KV Mechelen xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs KV Mechelen kick off?
Charleroi vs KV Mechelen kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Charleroi 3 - 2 KV Mechelen.
Where is Charleroi vs KV Mechelen being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs KV Mechelen part of?
Charleroi vs KV Mechelen is a Conference League Play-off Group - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 57% chance of winning, KV Mechelen a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charleroi and KV Mechelen will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs KV Mechelen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KV Mechelen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and KV Mechelen in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. KV Mechelen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.02x the league average against KV Mechelen's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KV Mechelen's attack (0.79x) against Charleroi's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.30
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.72
0.95
KV Mechelen xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
3%
29.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and KV Mechelen expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.95 for KV Mechelen, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charleroi's recent record stands at 15W 10D 13L from 38 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
KV Mechelen, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 15L across 38 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Charleroi against 1.45 for KV Mechelen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KV Mechelen's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of KV Mechelen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; KV Mechelen are on 1.61 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KV Mechelen in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
KV Mechelen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and KV Mechelen in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while KV Mechelen have gone 16W 7D 15L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or KV Mechelen away?
Charleroi's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.42 PPG; KV Mechelen away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Charleroi or KV Mechelen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, KV Mechelen in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
KV Mechelen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KV Mechelen won 5-2 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KV Mechelen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
2
Draws
5
KV Mechelen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KV Mechelen?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, KV Mechelen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and KV Mechelen last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when KV Mechelen 1-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and KV Mechelen?
KV Mechelen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
KV Mechelen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 32%, KV Mechelen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charleroi) and 53% (KV Mechelen).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 37% of games; KV Mechelen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / KV Mechelen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play KV Mechelen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Charleroi's recent matches and 58% of KV Mechelen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs KV Mechelen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Charleroi's recent games and 53% of KV Mechelen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and KV Mechelen tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, KV Mechelen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out KV Mechelen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat KV Mechelen 3-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.77 xG and KV Mechelen 0.95 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KV Mechelen outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against KV Mechelen attack 0.79 / defence 1.44, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 57% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 20%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 63%, KV Mechelen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
KV Mechelen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.45 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.