Charleroi 1-3 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 37%, yet in-form Gent provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host Gent at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Gent away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gent are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gent trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 37% versus Gent 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 60% | Gent 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.08 xG and Gent 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.018 / defence 0.904 | Gent attack 0.865 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.307. Data: 34 Charleroi games / 34 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 30% | Gent 33%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Gent 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gent (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 20% | Gent 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 2 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 30% | Gent 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Charleroi 1.08 / Gent 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.018 / def 0.904 | Gent attack 0.865 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gent xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Gent kick off?
Charleroi vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Charleroi 1 - 3 Gent.
Where is Charleroi vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Gent part of?
Charleroi vs Gent is a Conference League Play-off Group - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 37% chance of winning, Gent a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Charleroi and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Gent in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Gent (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.35
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.11
1.02
Gent xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.02 for Gent, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 15W 9D 11L from 35 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 9L across 35 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.54 PPG, Gent on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 7W 5D 5L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 7W 5D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.60 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Gent in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Gent
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Gent in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 15W 9D 11L in their last 35 games (1.54 PPG), while Gent have gone 18W 8D 9L in their last 35 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Gent away?
Charleroi's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.53 PPG; Gent away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Gent in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gent go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Gent specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
2
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Gent have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Gent see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Charleroi 24% BTTS, Gent 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charleroi) and 35% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Gent in 47%; Charleroi have failed to score in 41% of games; Gent in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Charleroi's recent matches and 35% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Charleroi's recent games and 35% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gent cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Charleroi 1-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.08 xG and Gent 1.02 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gent outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Gent attack 0.86 / defence 0.88, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 37% | Draw 30% | Gent 33%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gent win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 60%, Gent 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Gent's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.54 PPG, Gent 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gent (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.