Charleroi 1-3 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Club Brugge KV at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Club Brugge KV travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Club Brugge KV — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Club Brugge KV have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Club Brugge KV's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Club Brugge KV are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Charleroi, 2 for Club Brugge KV and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Club Brugge KV winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Club Brugge KV in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 47% versus Club Brugge KV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 64% | Club Brugge KV 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.44 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.042 / defence 1.078 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.230 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.370. Club Brugge KV have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Charleroi games / 39 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 31% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 46%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Club Brugge KV 2.17. Club Brugge KV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge KV are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 50% | Club Brugge KV 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 31% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Charleroi 1.44 / Club Brugge KV 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.042 / def 1.078 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.230 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Club Brugge KV xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Charleroi 1 - 3 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 31% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Charleroi and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 0 | Club Brugge KV 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.04) and Club Brugge KV's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge KV's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
31%
3.25
23%
4.39
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.26
1.82
Club Brugge KV xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
5%
20.00
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.82 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 10D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 2.13 PPG from 45 outings (28W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Club Brugge KV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charleroi's home form reads 9W 6D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 2.09 points per game from 22 outings (14W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge KV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Club Brugge KV in 60%.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Club Brugge KV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 10D 15L in their last 45 games (1.56 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 28W 12D 5L in their last 45 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Club Brugge KV's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.50 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Club Brugge KV have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jan 2024, when Club Brugge KV won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Club Brugge KV specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
2
Draws
8
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, Club Brugge KV have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Charleroi 1-2 Club Brugge KV.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 41%, Club Brugge KV 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Charleroi) and 64% (Club Brugge KV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Club Brugge KV in 36%; Charleroi have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Club Brugge KV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Charleroi's recent matches and 59% of Club Brugge KV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Charleroi's matches and 64% of Club Brugge KV's.
Do Charleroi and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Club Brugge KV cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Charleroi 1-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.44 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.82 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Club Brugge KV outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.23 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 31% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 46%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 64%, Club Brugge KV 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.