AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Eupen at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Charleroi travel to Stadion am Kehrweg to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 January 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, AS Eupen have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen at Stadion am Kehrweg this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AS Eupen are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Charleroi, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for AS Eupen.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 1–3 with Charleroi winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charleroi have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Charleroi trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 54% versus Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 58% | Charleroi 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.80 xG and Charleroi 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.948 / defence 1.091 | Charleroi attack 0.968 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.386. Data: 52 AS Eupen games / 51 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 46% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 32%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Charleroi 3.12. AS Eupen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Charleroi lead the H2H ledger, but AS Eupen carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates AS Eupen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Eupen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 50% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 46% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG AS Eupen 1.80 / Charleroi 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.948 / def 1.091 | Charleroi attack 0.968 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Charleroi xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Charleroi kick off?
AS Eupen vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
AS Eupen 1 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is AS Eupen vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Charleroi part of?
AS Eupen vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 46% chance of winning, Charleroi a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both AS Eupen and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
Record (3 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are AS Eupen and Charleroi in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Charleroi (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.95) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.38
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.27
1.47
Charleroi xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
5%
19.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.47 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 9D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.40 PPG from 52 outings (22W 7D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Eupen's home form reads 7W 4D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.40 points per game from 25 outings (11W 2D 12L).
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.54 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Charleroi in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 14W 9D 29L in their last 52 games (0.98 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 22W 7D 23L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Eupen and Charleroi runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Charleroi won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
AS Eupen
0
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 1, Charleroi have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 56%, Charleroi 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for AS Eupen and 76% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of AS Eupen's games and 56% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of AS Eupen's matches and 76% of Charleroi's.
Do AS Eupen and Charleroi tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat AS Eupen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat AS Eupen 1-2 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.80 xG and Charleroi 1.47 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AS Eupen fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Charleroi attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 46% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 32%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 58%, Charleroi 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.