Antwerp 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 5 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antwerp have posted 8W 1D 1L at Bosuilstadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bosuilstadion.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antwerp at 2.40 PPG versus Union St. Gilloise's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 45% versus Union St. Gilloise 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Union St. Gilloise 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.61 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.054 / defence 0.668 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.336 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.377. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.668 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Antwerp games / 68 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 45% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 28%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Union St. Gilloise 3.57. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 40% | Union St. Gilloise 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 45% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Antwerp 1.61 / Union St. Gilloise 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.054 / def 0.668 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.336 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Union St. Gilloise xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 45% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in?
Antwerp (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 1.05x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.78
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.84
1.23
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.23 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Antwerp's recent record stands at 45W 13D 20L from 78 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 51W 13D 14L across 78 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.90 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 24W 7D 8L from 39 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 26W 8D 5L across 39 trips, a 2.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.04 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 45W 13D 20L in their last 78 games (1.90 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 51W 13D 14L in their last 78 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.03 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
3
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 49%, Union St. Gilloise 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Antwerp and 64% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Antwerp's games and 64% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Antwerp's matches and 64% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 1-1 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.61 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.23 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.05 / defence 0.67 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.34 / defence 0.92, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 45% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 28%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Union St. Gilloise 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.90 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.