Antwerp 1-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Dender encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Dender travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp at Bosuilstadion this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Dender have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Antwerp are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Dender trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 48% versus Dender 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 57% | Dender 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.40 xG and Dender 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.335 / defence 0.756 | Dender attack 0.793 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.039. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Antwerp games / 14 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 75% | Draw 19% | Dender 6%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.33 | Draw 5.26 | Dender 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (75%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 50% | Dender 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 75% | Draw 19% | Dender 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 44% | xG Antwerp 2.40 / Dender 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.335 / def 0.756 | Dender attack 0.793 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (75%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Dender xG
44%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Dender kick off?
Antwerp vs Dender kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Dender?
Antwerp 1 - 1 Dender.
Where is Antwerp vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Dender part of?
Antwerp vs Dender is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 75% chance of winning, Dender a 6% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antwerp and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Dender?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Dender in?
Antwerp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Dender (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Antwerp vs Dender?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Dender's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
75%
1.33
19%
5.21
6%
17.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
3 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.02
0.62
Dender xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
17.12
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
9%
11.02
Win to Nil
40%
2.49
1%
188.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.62 for Dender, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp's recent record stands at 20W 7D 17L from 44 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 11L across 44 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.52 PPG, Dender on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dender's away record stands at 10W 6D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.64 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Dender in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 20W 7D 17L in their last 44 games (1.52 PPG), while Dender have gone 19W 14D 11L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Dender away?
Antwerp's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.71 PPG; Dender away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Dender in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dender have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Antwerp's record when hosting Dender specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Antwerp
1
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Dender?
From 4 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Dender have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Dender 1-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 48%, Dender 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Antwerp and 57% for Dender. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dender in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Dender?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Antwerp's recent matches and 57% of Dender's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Antwerp's matches and 57% of Dender's.
Do Antwerp and Dender tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dender in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp and Dender share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp and Dender finished level at 1-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.40 xG and Dender 0.62 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.33 / defence 0.76 against Dender attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 75% | Draw 19% | Dender 6%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 57%, Dender 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.52 PPG, Dender 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.