Anderlecht 2-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Anderlecht at 84% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Beerschot VA travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 5W 3D 2L at Lotto Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beerschot VA — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Anderlecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Anderlecht, 1 for Beerschot VA and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Beerschot VA winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 59% versus Beerschot VA 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 61% | Beerschot VA 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 2.92 xG and Beerschot VA 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.241 / defence 0.792 | Beerschot VA attack 0.646 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.753 / away 1.027. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Anderlecht's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Anderlecht games / 16 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 84% | Draw 13% | Beerschot VA 3%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.19 | Draw 7.69 | Beerschot VA 33.33. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (84%) — a 81pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 30% | Beerschot VA 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 84% | Draw 13% | Beerschot VA 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 40% | xG Anderlecht 2.92 / Beerschot VA 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.241 / def 0.792 | Beerschot VA attack 0.646 / def 1.340 | league avg home 1.753 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Beerschot VA xG
40%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Anderlecht 2 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA part of?
Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 84% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 3% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Anderlecht and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Beerschot VA?
Record (3 meetings): Anderlecht 2W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 1W.
What form are Anderlecht and Beerschot VA in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.24x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (13.2%), 4-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
84%
1.19
13%
7.52
3%
36.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
13.2%
Home win
4 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.44
0.53
Beerschot VA xG
1.19
84%
Home win
7.52
13%
Draw
36.76
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
5%
18.45
Win to Nil
50%
2.01
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.53 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 23W 14D 9L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA's form line: 19W 9D 18L from 46 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Anderlecht on 1.80 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 2.17 PPG from 23 outings (15W 5D 3L).
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 10W 2D 11L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 23W 14D 9L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Beerschot VA away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.17 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Anderlecht and Beerschot VA runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Anderlecht won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Anderlecht
0
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Anderlecht 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Beerschot VA?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 44%, Beerschot VA 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Anderlecht and 65% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 52% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Anderlecht's matches and 65% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Anderlecht and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Beerschot VA 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Beerschot VA 2-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 2.92 xG and Beerschot VA 0.53 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.24 / defence 0.79 against Beerschot VA attack 0.65 / defence 1.34, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 84% | Draw 13% | Beerschot VA 3%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 84%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 61%, Beerschot VA 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.80 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.