SK Beveren 2-3 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Lommel United at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 November 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 7W 3D 0L at Freethielstadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lommel United — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, SK Beveren have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, SK Beveren have won 1, Lommel United 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with SK Beveren winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lommel United trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 57% versus Lommel United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | Lommel United 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 2.19 xG and Lommel United 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.137 / defence 0.768 | Lommel United attack 0.964 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.368. Lommel United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 SK Beveren games / 42 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 64% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 16%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Lommel United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Lommel United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 64% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG SK Beveren 2.19 / Lommel United 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.137 / def 0.768 | Lommel United attack 0.964 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Lommel United xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Lommel United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
SK Beveren 2 - 3 Lommel United.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lommel United part of?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 64% chance of winning, Lommel United a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SK Beveren and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
Record (3 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 2 | Lommel United 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.14) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
64%
1.57
20%
4.97
16%
6.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.20
1.01
Lommel United xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
6.23
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
11%
8.93
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
2%
55.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.01 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 20W 9D 13L from 42 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 19L across 42 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.64 PPG, Lommel United on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 12W 3D 5L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.43 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 20W 9D 13L in their last 42 games (1.64 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lommel United away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.95 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
4
Draws
2
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 60%, Lommel United 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SK Beveren and 65% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SK Beveren's games and 55% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SK Beveren's matches and 65% of Lommel United's.
Do SK Beveren and Lommel United tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lommel United defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat SK Beveren 2-3 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 2.19 xG and Lommel United 1.01 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lommel United outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.14 / defence 0.77 against Lommel United attack 0.96 / defence 1.26, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 64% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 16%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Lommel United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 64%, Lommel United 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.64 PPG, Lommel United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.