SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Lommel United at Freethiel Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 9W 1D 0L at Freethiel Stadion — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lommel United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, SK Beveren have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 2.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lommel United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, SK Beveren have won 3, Lommel United 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Lommel United trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 49% versus Lommel United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 55% | Lommel United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.61 xG and Lommel United 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.157 / defence 0.765 | Lommel United attack 1.155 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.335. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 SK Beveren games / 51 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 3.57. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG SK Beveren 1.61 / Lommel United 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.157 / def 0.765 | Lommel United attack 1.155 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Lommel United xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Lommel United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
SK Beveren 2 - 0 Lommel United.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lommel United part of?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 47% chance of winning, Lommel United a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SK Beveren and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
Record (9 meetings): SK Beveren 3W | Draws 4 | Lommel United 2W.
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lommel United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.16) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.05
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.79
1.18
Lommel United xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
6%
17.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.18 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 31W 12D 8L from 51 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 20L across 51 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lommel United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 16W 6D 3L from 25 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 12W 5D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.51 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United in 61%.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 31W 12D 8L in their last 51 games (2.06 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lommel United away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.16 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.64 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Lommel United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
4
Draws
2
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 48%, Lommel United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SK Beveren) and 60% (Lommel United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Lommel United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 52% of Lommel United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of SK Beveren's matches and 60% of Lommel United's.
Do SK Beveren and Lommel United tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lommel United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Lommel United 2-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.61 xG and Lommel United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lommel United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.16 / defence 0.77 against Lommel United attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 55%, Lommel United 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lommel United's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.