SK Beveren 1-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SK Beveren face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as SK Beveren welcome KRC Genk II to Freethiel Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Freethiel Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. KRC Genk II haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for KRC Genk II and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 38% versus KRC Genk II 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 48% | KRC Genk II 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.67 xG and KRC Genk II 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.089 / defence 0.937 | KRC Genk II attack 0.865 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.554. Data: 30 SK Beveren games / 29 KRC Genk II games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 29%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | KRC Genk II 3.45. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 40% | KRC Genk II 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG SK Beveren 1.67 / KRC Genk II 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.089 / def 0.937 | KRC Genk II attack 0.865 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.554 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.26
KRC Genk II xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II kick off?
SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
SK Beveren 1 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II part of?
SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 47% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SK Beveren and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
Record (6 meetings): SK Beveren 3W | Draws 2 | KRC Genk II 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (30/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.16
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.93
1.26
KRC Genk II xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
5%
18.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.26 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 14W 7D 8L from 29 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 21L across 29 games — 0.48 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. KRC Genk II haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 6W 5D 3L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 0W 2D 12L across 14 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.03 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
KRC Genk II
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 14W 7D 8L in their last 29 games (1.69 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 3W 5D 21L in their last 29 (0.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or KRC Genk II away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.64 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.14 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
SK Beveren
2
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
From 8 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 5, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2025, when KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 43%, KRC Genk II 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for SK Beveren and 71% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; SK Beveren have failed to score in 36% of games; KRC Genk II in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play KRC Genk II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 57% of KRC Genk II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SK Beveren's matches and 71% of KRC Genk II's.
Do SK Beveren and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out KRC Genk II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat KRC Genk II 1-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.67 xG and KRC Genk II 1.26 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KRC Genk II landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against KRC Genk II attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 30/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 47% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 29%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 48%, KRC Genk II 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.48. Form held, and they took the win. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.