SK Beveren 1-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Francs Borains at Freethiel Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SK Beveren — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 7W 2D 1L at Freethiel Stadion — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SK Beveren are in the better shape of the two on current Challenger Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Francs Borains in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SK Beveren have won 2, Francs Borains 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 44% versus Francs Borains 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 51% | Francs Borains 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.82 xG and Francs Borains 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.134 / defence 0.798 | Francs Borains attack 1.025 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.356. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 SK Beveren games / 43 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 53% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 22%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Francs Borains 4.55. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Francs Borains 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 53% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG SK Beveren 1.82 / Francs Borains 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.134 / def 0.798 | Francs Borains attack 1.025 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Francs Borains xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Francs Borains kick off?
SK Beveren vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
SK Beveren 1 - 0 Francs Borains.
Where is SK Beveren vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Francs Borains part of?
SK Beveren vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 53% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SK Beveren and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Francs Borains?
Record (4 meetings): SK Beveren 2W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and Francs Borains in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.13) and Francs Borains's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.07
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.93
1.11
Francs Borains xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
27.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.11 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 24W 11D 8L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Francs Borains's form line: 13W 9D 21L from 43 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Venue Form
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (12W 6D 3L).
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 7W 4D 10L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.14 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 24W 11D 8L in their last 43 games (1.93 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 13W 9D 21L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Francs Borains away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.00 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.19 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SK Beveren go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when SK Beveren won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Francs Borains?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 48%, Francs Borains 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SK Beveren) and 62% (Francs Borains). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 57% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of SK Beveren's matches and 62% of Francs Borains's.
Do SK Beveren and Francs Borains tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Francs Borains 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Francs Borains 1-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.82 xG and Francs Borains 1.11 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Francs Borains landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.13 / defence 0.80 against Francs Borains attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 53% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 22%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 51%, Francs Borains 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Francs Borains's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.