SK Beveren 1-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host AS Eupen at Freethiel Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's home record at Freethiel Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AS Eupen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, SK Beveren have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SK Beveren have won 1, AS Eupen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 3–0 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 42% versus AS Eupen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 52% | AS Eupen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.66 xG and AS Eupen 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.192 / defence 0.758 | AS Eupen attack 0.980 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.406. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 SK Beveren games / 40 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 50% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 22%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | AS Eupen 4.55. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 50% | AS Eupen 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs AS Eupen | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 50% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG SK Beveren 1.66 / AS Eupen 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.192 / def 0.758 | AS Eupen attack 0.980 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.04
AS Eupen xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs AS Eupen kick off?
SK Beveren vs AS Eupen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
SK Beveren 1 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is SK Beveren vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs AS Eupen part of?
SK Beveren vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 50% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SK Beveren and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and AS Eupen?
Record (2 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 1 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and AS Eupen in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. AS Eupen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against AS Eupen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.61
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.71
1.04
AS Eupen xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
4%
23.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.04 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 23W 9D 8L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen's form line: 13W 10D 17L from 40 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Eupen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 4W 6D 9L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.40 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 23W 9D 8L in their last 40 games (1.95 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or AS Eupen away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.00 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.95 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and AS Eupen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2025, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
2
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and AS Eupen?
From 4 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, AS Eupen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when AS Eupen 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and AS Eupen?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 42%, AS Eupen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SK Beveren) and 58% (AS Eupen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; SK Beveren have failed to score in 26% of games; AS Eupen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 47% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of SK Beveren's matches and 58% of AS Eupen's.
Do SK Beveren and AS Eupen tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren and AS Eupen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as SK Beveren and AS Eupen drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.66 xG and AS Eupen 1.04 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.19 / defence 0.76 against AS Eupen attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 50% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 22%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 52%, AS Eupen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Eupen's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.