RWDM 1-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RWDM at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RWDM vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RWDM host Francs Borains at Edmond Machtensstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, RWDM stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
RWDM's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Francs Borains — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Francs Borains have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, RWDM have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for RWDM, 0 for Francs Borains and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended RWDM 2–1 Francs Borains — a RWDM win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RWDM in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RWDM 56% versus Francs Borains 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 60% | Francs Borains 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.17 xG and Francs Borains 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 0.918 / defence 0.798 | Francs Borains attack 0.973 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.361. RWDM have a tight defence (rating 0.798), which is pulling Francs Borains's projected output down. Data: built from RWDM's last 22 games and Francs Borains's last 52.
Result probabilities: RWDM 38% | Draw 30% | Francs Borains 32%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 2.64 | Draw 3.33 | Francs Borains 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RWDM are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RWDM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RWDM 50% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 38% | Draw 30% | Francs Borains 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG RWDM 1.17 / Francs Borains 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 0.918 / def 0.798 | Francs Borains attack 0.973 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: RWDM (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Francs Borains xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RWDM vs Francs Borains FAQs
What time does RWDM vs Francs Borains kick off?
RWDM vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Francs Borains?
RWDM 1 - 0 Francs Borains.
Where is RWDM vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Francs Borains part of?
RWDM vs Francs Borains is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 38% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both RWDM and Francs Borains will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will RWDM vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RWDM's attack rating (0.92) and Francs Borains's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RWDM's last 22 games and Francs Borains's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.33
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.23
1.06
Francs Borains xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RWDM vs Francs Borains Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are RWDM and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for RWDM and 1.06 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RWDM's recent record stands at 18W 13D 21L from 52 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Francs Borains, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 27L across 52 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RWDM on 1.29 PPG, Francs Borains on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RWDM have managed 10W 8D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Francs Borains's away record stands at 10W 4D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
RWDM are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
RWDM (Home) vs Francs Borains (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RWDM
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ RWDM vs Francs Borains Form FAQs
What form are RWDM and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 16W 9D 27L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Francs Borains away?
RWDM's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.46 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RWDM's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
RWDM
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ RWDM vs Francs Borains H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Francs Borains?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, RWDM have won 2, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RWDM and Francs Borains last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Francs Borains 0-0 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Francs Borains?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 58%, Francs Borains 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RWDM) and 65% (Francs Borains). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RWDM vs Francs Borains Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RWDM and Francs Borains matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of RWDM's games and 54% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RWDM and Francs Borains matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RWDM's matches and 65% of Francs Borains's.
Do RWDM and Francs Borains matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of RWDM's recent matches and 81% of Francs Borains's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RWDM edge out Francs Borains 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat Francs Borains 1-0 at Edmond Machtensstadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.17 xG and Francs Borains 1.06 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Francs Borains landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Francs Borains attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 38% | Draw 30% | Francs Borains 32%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 60%, Francs Borains 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Francs Borains's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RWDM 1.29 PPG, Francs Borains 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RWDM win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.