Royal Excel Mouscron 0-4 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Royal Excel Mouscron host SK Beveren at Stade Le Canonnier in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Royal Excel Mouscron — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Royal Excel Mouscron have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Royal Excel Mouscron 0.83 xG and SK Beveren 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.827 / defence 1.122 | SK Beveren attack 1.059 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 0.774 / away 1.251. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Royal Excel Mouscron's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Royal Excel Mouscron games / 2 SK Beveren games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 17% | Draw 34% | SK Beveren 49%. Fair-value odds: Royal Excel Mouscron 5.88 | Draw 2.94 | SK Beveren 2.04. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Le Canonnier • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 17% | Draw 34% | SK Beveren 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Royal Excel Mouscron 0.83 / SK Beveren 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.827 / def 1.122 | SK Beveren attack 1.059 / def 1.299 | league avg home 0.774 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Expected Goals
1.49
SK Beveren xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren kick off?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stade Le Canonnier.
What was the final score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Royal Excel Mouscron 0 - 4 SK Beveren.
Where is Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade Le Canonnier.
What competition is Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren part of?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Royal Excel Mouscron a 17% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 49% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren in?
Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Royal Excel Mouscron's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Royal Excel Mouscron's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
17%
5.75
34%
2.97
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Total xG
2.32
1.49
SK Beveren xG
5.75
17%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
4%
25.41
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.6 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Royal Excel Mouscron and 1.49 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Royal Excel Mouscron have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Royal Excel Mouscron.
Goals in Recent Form
Royal Excel Mouscron are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Royal Excel Mouscron
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when SK Beveren won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Royal Excel Mouscron's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Royal Excel Mouscron
0
Draws
2
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren?
From 4 meetings on record, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 2, SK Beveren have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when SK Beveren 2-0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Royal Excel Mouscron home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Royal Excel Mouscron play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Royal Excel Mouscron's recent matches and 50% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Royal Excel Mouscron's recent games and 50% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Royal Excel Mouscron have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Royal Excel Mouscron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Royal Excel Mouscron 0-4 at Stade Le Canonnier, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Royal Excel Mouscron 0.83 xG and SK Beveren 1.49 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Royal Excel Mouscron fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SK Beveren outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against SK Beveren attack 1.06 / defence 1.30, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Royal Excel Mouscron 17% | Draw 34% | SK Beveren 49%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Royal Excel Mouscron 50%, SK Beveren 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Royal Excel Mouscron shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.