Patro Eisden 1-0 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Patro Eisden host Olympic Charleroi at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 27 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Patro Eisden stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Patrostadion, Patro Eisden have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Olympic Charleroi have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympic Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Patro Eisden have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Patro Eisden, 0 for Olympic Charleroi and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Patro Eisden in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Olympic Charleroi in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 45% versus Olympic Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 40% | Olympic Charleroi 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.56 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.870 / defence 0.760 | Olympic Charleroi attack 1.022 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.368. Olympic Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Patro Eisden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Patro Eisden's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Patro Eisden games / 20 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 49% | Draw 25% | Olympic Charleroi 26%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Olympic Charleroi 3.85. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 50% | Olympic Charleroi 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 49% | Draw 25% | Olympic Charleroi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Patro Eisden 1.56 / Olympic Charleroi 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.870 / def 0.760 | Olympic Charleroi attack 1.022 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Olympic Charleroi xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi?
Patro Eisden 1 - 0 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 49% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Patro Eisden and Olympic Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Olympic Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): Patro Eisden 0W | Draws 1 | Olympic Charleroi 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Olympic Charleroi in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Olympic Charleroi's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Olympic Charleroi's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
49%
2.04
25%
3.96
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.62
1.06
Olympic Charleroi xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.06 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Patro Eisden have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 10W 5D 5L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympic Charleroi's form line: 2W 6D 12L from 20 games, 0.60 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Patro Eisden are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Olympic Charleroi.
Venue Form
On home soil, Patro Eisden have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.60 PPG overall record — Olympic Charleroi travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.85 scored and 2.05 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 games (1.75 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 6D 12L in their last 20 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.89 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Olympic Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Olympic Charleroi in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
0
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Olympic Charleroi?
From 2 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 1, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Patro Eisden 1-0 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Olympic Charleroi?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 44%, Olympic Charleroi 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Patro Eisden) and 67% (Olympic Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Patro Eisden have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Olympic Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Patro Eisden's games and 67% of Olympic Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Olympic Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Patro Eisden's matches and 67% of Olympic Charleroi's.
Do Patro Eisden and Olympic Charleroi tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Olympic Charleroi in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out Olympic Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Olympic Charleroi 1-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.56 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.06 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympic Charleroi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.87 / defence 0.76 against Olympic Charleroi attack 1.02 / defence 1.31, drawn from 49/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 49% | Draw 25% | Olympic Charleroi 26%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 40%, Olympic Charleroi 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.