Patro Eisden 1-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees KRC Genk II travel to Patrostadion to take on Patro Eisden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Patro Eisden at Patrostadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Patro Eisden are significantly better at Patrostadion than their overall form suggests.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. KRC Genk II's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Patro Eisden's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Patro Eisden have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while KRC Genk II have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 4–4 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Patro Eisden and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Patro Eisden 58% and KRC Genk II 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 53% | KRC Genk II 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.90 xG and KRC Genk II 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.911 / defence 1.078 | KRC Genk II attack 1.028 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.383. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Patro Eisden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Patro Eisden games / 38 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 31%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | KRC Genk II 3.23. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Patro Eisden dominate the H2H record, yet KRC Genk II are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KRC Genk II (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 70% | KRC Genk II 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Patro Eisden 1.90 / KRC Genk II 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.911 / def 1.078 | KRC Genk II attack 1.028 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.53
KRC Genk II xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden 1 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II part of?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 46% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Record (6 meetings): Patro Eisden 4W | Draws 2 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
46%
2.16
22%
4.51
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
3.43
1.53
KRC Genk II xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.53 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Patro Eisden have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 14W 10D 14L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
KRC Genk II's form line: 9W 11D 18L from 38 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Patro Eisden on 1.37 PPG, KRC Genk II on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Patro Eisden have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 4W 6D 9L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.42 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Early Season
KRC Genk II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 14W 10D 14L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or KRC Genk II away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.53 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Patro Eisden won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Patro Eisden
2
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
From 7 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 5, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Patro Eisden 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Patro Eisden at 58%, KRC Genk II at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Patro Eisden and 79% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Patro Eisden's games and 74% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Patro Eisden's matches and 79% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out KRC Genk II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat KRC Genk II 1-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.90 xG and KRC Genk II 1.53 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Patro Eisden fell 0.9 short of their projected output. KRC Genk II landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against KRC Genk II attack 1.03 / defence 1.26, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 31%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 53%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.37 PPG, KRC Genk II 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.