Patro Eisden 0-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Beerschot VA travel to Patrostadion to take on Patro Eisden. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 December 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Patrostadion, Patro Eisden have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Beerschot VA's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Patro Eisden's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Beerschot VA trading profile (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Patro Eisden 62% and Beerschot VA 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Patro Eisden 62% | Beerschot VA 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 0.91 xG and Beerschot VA 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.892 / defence 1.158 | Beerschot VA attack 1.106 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.515. Data: 13 Patro Eisden games / 34 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 17% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 61%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 5.88 | Draw 4.76 | Beerschot VA 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Beerschot VA (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beerschot VA at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 67% | Beerschot VA 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 17% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Patro Eisden 0.91 / Beerschot VA 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.892 / def 1.158 | Beerschot VA attack 1.106 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Beerschot VA xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Patro Eisden 0 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA part of?
Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 17% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Patro Eisden's attack at 0.89x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
17%
5.88
21%
4.65
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.85
1.94
Beerschot VA xG
5.88
17%
Home win
4.65
21%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
14%
6.96
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
2%
40.89
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.94 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 4D 3L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Patro Eisden on 1.69 PPG, Beerschot VA on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Patro Eisden's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 3.00 points per game from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.00 PPG overall record — Beerschot VA travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.69 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Beerschot VA in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.40 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 3.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2026, when Beerschot VA won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
3
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 2, Beerschot VA have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beerschot VA 3-2 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Patro Eisden at 60%, Beerschot VA at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Patro Eisden and 80% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Patro Eisden's games and 80% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Patro Eisden's matches and 80% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Patro Eisden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Patro Eisden 0-2 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 0.91 xG and Beerschot VA 1.94 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Patro Eisden fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against Beerschot VA attack 1.11 / defence 0.83, drawn from 13/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 17% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 61%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 62%, Beerschot VA 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.69 PPG, Beerschot VA 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.