Olympic Charleroi 0-5 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees SK Beveren travel to Stade de la Neuville to take on Olympic Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympic Charleroi stand at 0W 0D 4L from 4 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Olympic Charleroi have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. SK Beveren's 2.20 PPG return is 2.20 points per game ahead of Olympic Charleroi's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Olympic Charleroi in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Olympic Charleroi 50% | SK Beveren 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 100% | SK Beveren 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.59 xG and SK Beveren 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.703 / defence 1.523 | SK Beveren attack 1.170 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.277. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SK Beveren's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 4 Olympic Charleroi games / 33 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 8% | Draw 16% | SK Beveren 76%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 12.50 | Draw 6.25 | SK Beveren 1.32. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 50% | SK Beveren 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de la Neuville • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 8% | Draw 16% | SK Beveren 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 40% | xG Olympic Charleroi 0.59 / SK Beveren 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.703 / def 1.523 | SK Beveren attack 1.170 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Olympic Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
2.27
SK Beveren xG
40%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren kick off?
Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Stade de la Neuville.
What was the final score in Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren?
Olympic Charleroi 0 - 5 SK Beveren.
Where is Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Neuville.
What competition is Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren part of?
Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Olympic Charleroi a 8% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 76% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren in?
Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.25 | L5 L-L-L-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Olympic Charleroi's attack rating (0.70) and SK Beveren's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Olympic Charleroi's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-3 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
8%
12.56
16%
6.13
76%
1.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
0 – 3
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Olympic Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.86
2.27
SK Beveren xG
12.56
8%
Home win
6.13
16%
Draw
1.32
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
10%
9.73
56%
1.80
Win to Nil
1%
122.21
42%
2.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 13.0 | 14.8 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 2.27 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympic Charleroi come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 0D 4L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Olympic Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Olympic Charleroi are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.25 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren in 0%.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympic Charleroi
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have Olympic Charleroi or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympic Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Olympic Charleroi
0
Draws
2
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, SK Beveren have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SK Beveren tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Olympic Charleroi 50% BTTS, SK Beveren 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Olympic Charleroi and 25% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 100%; Olympic Charleroi have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympic Charleroi home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympic Charleroi play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympic Charleroi's recent matches and 0% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympic Charleroi vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Olympic Charleroi's matches and 25% of SK Beveren's.
Do Olympic Charleroi and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Olympic Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Olympic Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Olympic Charleroi 0-5 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.59 xG and SK Beveren 2.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren outscored their 2.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.70 / defence 1.52 against SK Beveren attack 1.17 / defence 0.67, drawn from 4/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 8% | Draw 16% | SK Beveren 76%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 100%, SK Beveren 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SK Beveren's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Olympic Charleroi shipped 5 against a 3.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.