Lommel United 3-0 Royal Excel Mouscron – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lommel United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron meet at Soevereinstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lommel United's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games (1.43 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.57 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lommel United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Soevereinstadion, Lommel United have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Royal Excel Mouscron (all games): 0W 2D 5L across 7 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.29 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 2.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.29 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Royal Excel Mouscron have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Lommel United's 1.43 PPG return is 1.14 points per game ahead of Royal Excel Mouscron's 0.29 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lommel United register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Royal Excel Mouscron in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Lommel United 1W, Royal Excel Mouscron 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Lommel United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Royal Excel Mouscron goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lommel United 71% and Royal Excel Mouscron 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lommel United 71% | Royal Excel Mouscron 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 2.09 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.209 / defence 1.233 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.869 / defence 1.479. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.506. Royal Excel Mouscron bring a strong defensive rating of 1.479 — this is suppressing Lommel United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Lommel United games / 7 Royal Excel Mouscron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 47% | Draw 26% | Royal Excel Mouscron 28%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Royal Excel Mouscron 3.57. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 100% | Royal Excel Mouscron 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 47% | Draw 26% | Royal Excel Mouscron 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG Lommel United 2.09 / Royal Excel Mouscron 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.209 / def 1.233 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.869 / def 1.479 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron kick off?
Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Lommel United 3 - 0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Where is Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron part of?
Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 47% chance of winning, Royal Excel Mouscron a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Record (1 meetings): Lommel United 1W | Draws 0 | Royal Excel Mouscron 0W.
What form are Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron in?
Lommel United (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 1.21x the league average against Royal Excel Mouscron's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Royal Excel Mouscron's attack (0.87x) against Lommel United's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.85
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Lommel United xG
Total xG
3.71
1.61
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
3%
29.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.61 for Royal Excel Mouscron, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 3L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Royal Excel Mouscron's form line: 0W 2D 5L from 7 games, 0.29 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Royal Excel Mouscron.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lommel United are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Royal Excel Mouscron are on 0.86 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Royal Excel Mouscron in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
Royal Excel Mouscron
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Royal Excel Mouscron away?
Lommel United's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.33 PPG; Royal Excel Mouscron away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Royal Excel Mouscron — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lommel United
1
Draws
1
Royal Excel Mouscron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron?
From 4 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 2, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Lommel United 0-0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Lommel United, 100% for Royal Excel Mouscron — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Lommel United and 100% for Royal Excel Mouscron. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Royal Excel Mouscron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Royal Excel Mouscron?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lommel United's games and 100% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Royal Excel Mouscron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Lommel United's matches and 100% of Royal Excel Mouscron's.
Do Lommel United and Royal Excel Mouscron tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Royal Excel Mouscron in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Royal Excel Mouscron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Royal Excel Mouscron 3-0 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 2.09 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.61 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Royal Excel Mouscron landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.21 / defence 1.23 against Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.87 / defence 1.48, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 47% | Draw 26% | Royal Excel Mouscron 28%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 71%, Royal Excel Mouscron 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.