Lommel United 1-1 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Lokeren-Temse travel to Soeverein Stadion to take on Lommel United. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 3W 5D 2L at Soeverein Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Soeverein Stadion this season.
Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse's away record: 2W 1D 3L from 6 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Lommel United have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Lommel United trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Lokeren-Temse trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 83% versus Lokeren-Temse 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 58% | Lokeren-Temse 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.25 xG and Lokeren-Temse 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.885 / defence 0.890 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.711 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.426. Data: 42 Lommel United games / 12 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 44% | Draw 29% | Lokeren-Temse 27%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Lokeren-Temse 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 60% | Lokeren-Temse 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 44% | Draw 29% | Lokeren-Temse 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Lommel United 1.25 / Lokeren-Temse 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.885 / def 0.890 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.711 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Lokeren-Temse xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Lommel United 1 - 1 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 44% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse in?
Lommel United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lommel United's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Lokeren-Temse's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Lokeren-Temse's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.46
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.15
0.90
Lokeren-Temse xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.90 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 5W 4D 3L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lokeren-Temse's form line: 3W 3D 6L from 12 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lokeren-Temse.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
On the road, Lokeren-Temse have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Lokeren-Temse in 17%.
Last 12 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
Lokeren-Temse's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.20 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Lokeren-Temse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Lokeren-Temse in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lommel United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Lommel United's record when hosting Lokeren-Temse specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lommel United
1
Draws
1
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse?
From 4 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 2, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 2-3 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 80%, Lokeren-Temse 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Lommel United and 20% for Lokeren-Temse.
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse in 40%; Lokeren-Temse in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Lokeren-Temse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Lommel United's recent matches and 20% of Lokeren-Temse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Lommel United's recent games and 20% of Lokeren-Temse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United and Lokeren-Temse finished level at 1-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.25 xG and Lokeren-Temse 0.90 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.71 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 44% | Draw 29% | Lokeren-Temse 27%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 58%, Lokeren-Temse 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.