Lommel United 3-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Francs Borains make the trip to Soeverein Stadion to face Lommel United in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Lommel United (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lommel United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Soeverein Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Soeverein Stadion.
Francs Borains's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Francs Borains have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Lommel United's favour (2.40 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Lommel United — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 40% versus Francs Borains 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 40% | Francs Borains 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.48 xG and Francs Borains 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.903 / defence 0.767 | Francs Borains attack 1.006 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.346. Lommel United's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Lommel United games / 5 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 47% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 27%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Francs Borains 3.70. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 40% | Francs Borains 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 47% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Lommel United 1.48 / Francs Borains 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.903 / def 0.767 | Francs Borains attack 1.006 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Francs Borains xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Francs Borains kick off?
Lommel United vs Francs Borains kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Lommel United 3 - 0 Francs Borains.
Where is Lommel United vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Francs Borains part of?
Lommel United vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 47% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lommel United and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Francs Borains?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and Francs Borains in?
Lommel United (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.90x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (1.01x) against Lommel United's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 27/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.83
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.52
1.04
Francs Borains xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.04 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lommel United's recent record stands at 4W 0D 1L from 5 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Francs Borains, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 2L across 5 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Francs Borains, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Lommel United are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Francs Borains's attacking output running into Lommel United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Francs Borains in 60%.
Defensively: Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Francs Borains in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
Francs Borains
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Lommel United or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lommel United
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lommel United 3-1 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Francs Borains?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lommel United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 40%, Francs Borains 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lommel United) and 60% (Francs Borains).
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Francs Borains in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lommel United's recent matches and 60% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lommel United's recent games and 60% of Francs Borains's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Francs Borains 3-0 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.48 xG and Francs Borains 1.04 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Francs Borains landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.90 / defence 0.77 against Francs Borains attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 47% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 27%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 40%, Francs Borains 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Francs Borains's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Lommel United scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.