Lommel United 2-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Deinze at Soevereinstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United at Soevereinstadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.60 PPG versus Deinze's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Deinze in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lommel United 59% and Deinze 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 59% | Deinze 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.07 xG and Deinze 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.883 / defence 0.956 | Deinze attack 0.967 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.257. Data: 27 Lommel United games / 27 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 33% | Draw 29% | Deinze 38%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Deinze 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deinze as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 40% | Deinze 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 33% | Draw 29% | Deinze 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Lommel United 1.07 / Deinze 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.883 / def 0.956 | Deinze attack 0.967 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Deinze (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Deinze xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Deinze kick off?
Lommel United vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Lommel United 2 - 1 Deinze.
Where is Lommel United vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Deinze part of?
Lommel United vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 33% chance of winning, Deinze a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lommel United and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in?
Lommel United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Deinze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.88x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
33%
3.00
29%
3.47
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.23
1.16
Deinze xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.16 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 8W 8D 11L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze's form line: 9W 12D 6L from 27 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.19 PPG, Deinze on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, Deinze have gone 4W 6D 3L from 13 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.70 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 games (1.19 PPG), while Deinze have gone 9W 12D 6L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.23 PPG; Deinze away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lommel United
3
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 5, Deinze have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Deinze?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 54%, Deinze 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lommel United) and 54% (Deinze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Lommel United have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lommel United's games and 62% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lommel United's matches and 54% of Deinze's.
Do Lommel United and Deinze tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Deinze in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lommel United defy the odds to beat Deinze 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Deinze 2-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.07 xG and Deinze 1.16 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Deinze attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 33% | Draw 29% | Deinze 38%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 59%, Deinze 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.19 PPG, Deinze 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.