Lommel United 4-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Deinze at Soevereinstadion in Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lommel United at Soevereinstadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deinze away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.20 PPG versus Deinze's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lommel United, 1 for Deinze and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Deinze in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 54% versus Deinze 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 57% | Deinze 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.14 xG and Deinze 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.872 / defence 1.061 | Deinze attack 0.764 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.453. Data: 50 Lommel United games / 50 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 35% | Draw 28% | Deinze 37%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Deinze 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deinze as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 60% | Deinze 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 35% | Draw 28% | Deinze 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Lommel United 1.14 / Deinze 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.872 / def 1.061 | Deinze attack 0.764 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Deinze (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Deinze xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Deinze kick off?
Lommel United vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Lommel United 4 - 1 Deinze.
Where is Lommel United vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Deinze part of?
Lommel United vs Deinze is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 35% chance of winning, Deinze a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lommel United and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
Record (4 meetings): Lommel United 2W | Draws 1 | Deinze 1W.
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in?
Lommel United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Deinze (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.87x the league average against Deinze's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.54
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.31
1.18
Deinze xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.18 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 22W 11D 23L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Deinze's form line: 21W 16D 19L from 56 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.38 PPG, Deinze on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (11W 5D 12L).
On the road, Deinze have gone 9W 8D 11L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.55 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Current Season
Deinze
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 22W 11D 23L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Deinze have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Deinze away?
Lommel United's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.36 PPG; Deinze away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lommel United
3
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 5, Deinze have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Deinze?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 54%, Deinze 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lommel United) and 50% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Lommel United have failed to score in 29% of games; Deinze in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lommel United's recent matches and 54% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lommel United's recent games and 50% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Deinze tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Deinze in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Deinze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Deinze 4-1 at Soevereinstadion, Relegation Round - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.14 xG and Deinze 1.18 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Deinze attack 0.76 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 35% | Draw 28% | Deinze 37%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 57%, Deinze 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.38 PPG, Deinze 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Deinze (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.