Lokeren-Temse 2-4 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lokeren-Temse (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lokeren-Temse face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lokeren-Temse host KRC Genk II at Daknamstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lokeren-Temse stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lokeren-Temse have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lokeren-Temse's home record at Daknamstadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lokeren-Temse are in the better shape of the two on current Challenger Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lokeren-Temse, 0 for KRC Genk II and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lokeren-Temse in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
KRC Genk II in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lokeren-Temse 74% and KRC Genk II 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 53% | KRC Genk II 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 2.21 xG and KRC Genk II 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.087 / defence 1.015 | KRC Genk II attack 1.018 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.215. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Lokeren-Temse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Lokeren-Temse games / 34 KRC Genk II games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 59% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 21%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | KRC Genk II 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Lokeren-Temse (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lokeren-Temse are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 90% | KRC Genk II 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 59% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Lokeren-Temse 2.21 / KRC Genk II 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.087 / def 1.015 | KRC Genk II attack 1.018 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.26
KRC Genk II xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Lokeren-Temse 2 - 4 KRC Genk II.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 59% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II?
Record (4 meetings): Lokeren-Temse 2W | Draws 2 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lokeren-Temse's attack at 1.09x the league average against KRC Genk II's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Lokeren-Temse's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
59%
1.70
20%
4.98
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
3.46
1.26
KRC Genk II xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
2%
43.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.26 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lokeren-Temse's recent record stands at 12W 12D 10L from 34 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 17L across 34 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lokeren-Temse by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lokeren-Temse have managed 5W 8D 4L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 3W 6D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokeren-Temse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.32 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; KRC Genk II in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
KRC Genk II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 12W 12D 10L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 7W 10D 17L in their last 34 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or KRC Genk II away?
Lokeren-Temse's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.35 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Lokeren-Temse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lokeren-Temse's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Lokeren-Temse
2
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II?
From 5 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 2, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 2-4 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lokeren-Temse at 82%, KRC Genk II at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Lokeren-Temse and 76% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Lokeren-Temse's games and 76% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Lokeren-Temse's matches and 76% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KRC Genk II cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Lokeren-Temse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat Lokeren-Temse 2-4 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 2.21 xG and KRC Genk II 1.26 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against KRC Genk II attack 1.02 / defence 1.28, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 59% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 21%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a KRC Genk II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 53%, KRC Genk II 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with KRC Genk II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.