KRC Genk II 1-3 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Patro Eisden travel to De Leunen to take on KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
KRC Genk II's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Patro Eisden stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Patro Eisden's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Patro Eisden's 2.10 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of KRC Genk II's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for KRC Genk II, 1 for Patro Eisden and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Mar 2024, ended KRC Genk II 2–2 Patro Eisden — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
KRC Genk II trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Patro Eisden trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 68% versus Patro Eisden 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 70% | Patro Eisden 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 0.81 xG and Patro Eisden 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.871 / defence 1.258 | Patro Eisden attack 0.953 / defence 0.614. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.408. Patro Eisden bring a tight defence (rating 0.614, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling KRC Genk II's projected output down. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Patro Eisden's projected output up. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 44 games and Patro Eisden's last 44.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 18% | Draw 24% | Patro Eisden 58%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 5.66 | Draw 4.18 | Patro Eisden 1.71. The model has a clear lean to Patro Eisden (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 60% (last 10 home games) | Patro Eisden 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 18% | Draw 24% | Patro Eisden 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG KRC Genk II 0.81 / Patro Eisden 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.871 / def 1.258 | Patro Eisden attack 0.953 / def 0.614 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Patro Eisden xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
KRC Genk II 1 - 3 Patro Eisden.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden part of?
KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 18% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.87) and Patro Eisden's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 44 games and Patro Eisden's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
18%
5.66
24%
4.18
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.50
1.69
Patro Eisden xG
5.66
18%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
3%
30.64
26%
3.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 13.9 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.69 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 13W 8D 23L from 44 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 9L across 44 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 7W 3D 11L from their last 21 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 8W 10D 3L across their last 21 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.52 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
KRC Genk II (Home) vs Patro Eisden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 13W 8D 23L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 20W 15D 9L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.14 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.62 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Sep 2025, when Patro Eisden won KRC Genk II 1-4 Patro Eisden.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
5
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 0, Patro Eisden have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Patro Eisden 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 67%, Patro Eisden 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (KRC Genk II) and 33% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 62%; Patro Eisden in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 29% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of KRC Genk II's recent games and 33% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 52% of Patro Eisden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat KRC Genk II 1-3 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 0.81 xG and Patro Eisden 1.69 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against Patro Eisden attack 0.95 / defence 0.61, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 18% | Draw 24% | Patro Eisden 58%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 70%, Patro Eisden 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.