KRC Genk II 0-3 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lommel United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KRC Genk II and Lommel United meet at Cegeka Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lommel United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — KRC Genk II register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Lommel United in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.70 xG and Lommel United 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.231 / defence 1.086 | Lommel United attack 1.239 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.356. Lommel United have an above-average attack strength of 1.239 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 KRC Genk II games / 30 Lommel United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 36% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 42%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Lommel United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 36% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG KRC Genk II 1.70 / Lommel United 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.231 / def 1.086 | Lommel United attack 1.239 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Lommel United xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Lommel United kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
KRC Genk II 0 - 3 Lommel United.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United part of?
KRC Genk II vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 36% chance of winning, Lommel United a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both KRC Genk II and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KRC Genk II and Lommel United in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (1.23) and Lommel United's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (1.24x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
The sample (2/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
36%
2.76
22%
4.51
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.52
1.82
Lommel United xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
6%
17.10
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.82 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lommel United's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for KRC Genk II against 1.50 for Lommel United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Lommel United in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 0-4 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
7
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 2, Lommel United have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when KRC Genk II 0-2 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of KRC Genk II's games and 50% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of KRC Genk II's matches and 50% of Lommel United's.
Do KRC Genk II and Lommel United tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat KRC Genk II 0-3 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.70 xG and Lommel United 1.82 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. KRC Genk II fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lommel United outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.23 / defence 1.09 against Lommel United attack 1.24 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 36% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 42%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 100%, Lommel United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 1.50 PPG, Lommel United 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.