KRC Genk II 0-2 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dender make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 30 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KRC Genk II have collected 0.83 PPG across 6 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 3L. Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.83 conceded. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cegeka Arena, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Dender (all games): 1W 1D 4L across 6 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dender have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dender away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.67 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.83 PPG for KRC Genk II against 0.67 for Dender. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dender goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 67% versus Dender 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 67% | Dender 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 0.99 xG and Dender 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.896 / defence 1.085 | Dender attack 0.780 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.588. Data: 6 KRC Genk II games / 6 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 27% | Draw 29% | Dender 44%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Dender 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dender at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dender if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 33% | Dender 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 27% | Draw 29% | Dender 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG KRC Genk II 0.99 / Dender 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.896 / def 1.085 | Dender attack 0.780 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.588 • Poisson stance: Dender (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Dender xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Dender kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Dender?
KRC Genk II 0 - 2 Dender.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Dender part of?
KRC Genk II vs Dender is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 27% chance of winning, Dender a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both KRC Genk II and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Dender?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KRC Genk II and Dender in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Dender (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.90) and Dender's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dender's attack (0.78x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
27%
3.69
29%
3.50
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.34
1.34
Dender xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.17
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.34 for Dender, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 4L across 6 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for KRC Genk II against 0.67 for Dender. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dender's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.67 PPG overall record — Dender travel well.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Dender in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Dender have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.00 PPG; Dender away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: KRC Genk II have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dender won 0-4 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
KRC Genk II
0
Draws
3
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 3, Dender have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when KRC Genk II 2-1 Dender.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (KRC Genk II) and 33% (Dender) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for KRC Genk II and 0% for Dender.
On the defensive side: Dender in 33%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 67% of games; Dender in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Dender?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 33% of Dender's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of KRC Genk II's recent games and 0% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KRC Genk II and Dender tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dender in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dender cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat KRC Genk II 0-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 0.99 xG and Dender 1.34 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. KRC Genk II fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Dender attack 0.78 / defence 0.92, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 27% | Draw 29% | Dender 44%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 67%, Dender 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dender's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 0.83 PPG, Dender 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Dender (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.