Kortrijk 1-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Kortrijk welcome Beerschot VA to Guldensporen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's home record at Guldensporen Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Kortrijk) versus 1.40 (Beerschot VA). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kortrijk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beerschot VA in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Kortrijk have won 3, Beerschot VA 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Kortrijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 52% versus Beerschot VA 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 56% | Beerschot VA 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 2.06 xG and Beerschot VA 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 1.468 / defence 1.010 | Beerschot VA attack 0.947 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.313. Kortrijk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.468 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 Kortrijk games / 23 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 56% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 23%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Beerschot VA 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Kortrijk (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 60% | Beerschot VA 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Guldensporen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 56% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Kortrijk 2.06 / Beerschot VA 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 1.468 / def 1.010 | Beerschot VA attack 0.947 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Beerschot VA xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Guldensporen Stadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporen Stadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA part of?
Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 56% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kortrijk and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA?
Record (7 meetings): Kortrijk 3W | Draws 2 | Beerschot VA 2W.
What form are Kortrijk and Beerschot VA in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 1.47x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
56%
1.79
21%
4.73
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
3.32
1.26
Beerschot VA xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
13%
7.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
3%
34.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.26 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kortrijk come into this having played 59 games, going 25W 10D 24L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 1.15 PPG from 59 outings (18W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.44 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kortrijk's home form reads 15W 5D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (7W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.19 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 25W 10D 24L in their last 59 games (1.44 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 18W 14D 27L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Beerschot VA away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.72 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kortrijk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kortrijk
2
Draws
2
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 4, Beerschot VA have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Kortrijk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 55%, Beerschot VA 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kortrijk) and 62% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Kortrijk's games and 55% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Kortrijk's matches and 62% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Kortrijk and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Beerschot VA 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Beerschot VA 1-0 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 2.06 xG and Beerschot VA 1.26 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.47 / defence 1.01 against Beerschot VA attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 56% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 23%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, Beerschot VA 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.44 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.