KAA Gent II 2-4 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KAA Gent II host SK Beveren at Planet Group Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KAA Gent II — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KAA Gent II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KAA Gent II at Planet Group Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Planet Group Arena this season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, KAA Gent II have won 0, SK Beveren 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KAA Gent II in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KAA Gent II 45% versus SK Beveren 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KAA Gent II 50% | SK Beveren 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KAA Gent II 0.93 xG and SK Beveren 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KAA Gent II attack 0.835 / defence 1.057 | SK Beveren attack 1.265 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.313. SK Beveren have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 KAA Gent II games / 49 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KAA Gent II 20% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 57%. Fair-value odds: KAA Gent II 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | SK Beveren 1.75. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: KAA Gent II 50% | SK Beveren 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KAA Gent II 20% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG KAA Gent II 0.93 / SK Beveren 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: KAA Gent II attack 0.835 / def 1.057 | SK Beveren attack 1.265 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
KAA Gent II xG
Expected Goals
1.75
SK Beveren xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren kick off?
KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren?
KAA Gent II 2 - 4 SK Beveren.
Where is KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren part of?
KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives KAA Gent II a 20% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both KAA Gent II and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between KAA Gent II and SK Beveren?
Record (1 meetings): KAA Gent II 0W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are KAA Gent II and SK Beveren in?
KAA Gent II (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. SK Beveren (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KAA Gent II's attack at 0.83x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus KAA Gent II's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
20%
5.03
23%
4.27
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
KAA Gent II xG
Total xG
2.69
1.75
SK Beveren xG
5.03
20%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
3%
29.11
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are KAA Gent II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for KAA Gent II and 1.75 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KAA Gent II's recent record stands at 9W 3D 8L from 20 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for KAA Gent II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren, meanwhile, have gone 17W 3D 0L across 20 games — 2.70 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KAA Gent II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KAA Gent II have managed 3W 3D 3L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Beveren's away record stands at 7W 2D 0L across 9 trips, a 2.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KAA Gent II are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.05 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren in 60%.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KAA Gent II
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KAA Gent II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
KAA Gent II have gone 9W 3D 8L in their last 20 games (1.50 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 17W 3D 0L in their last 20 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KAA Gent II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KAA Gent II at home: 1.33 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.56 PPG.
Have KAA Gent II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
KAA Gent II have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KAA Gent II and SK Beveren runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
KAA Gent II
0
Draws
2
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KAA Gent II and SK Beveren?
From 2 meetings on record, KAA Gent II have won 0, SK Beveren have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KAA Gent II and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when KAA Gent II 2-4 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between KAA Gent II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KAA Gent II see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KAA Gent II 56%, SK Beveren 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (KAA Gent II) and 67% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KAA Gent II keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SK Beveren in 33%; KAA Gent II have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KAA Gent II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KAA Gent II play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of KAA Gent II's games and 67% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KAA Gent II vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of KAA Gent II's matches and 67% of SK Beveren's.
Do KAA Gent II and SK Beveren tend to score early?
KAA Gent II have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over KAA Gent II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat KAA Gent II 2-4 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 0.93 xG and SK Beveren 1.75 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. KAA Gent II beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren outscored their 1.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against SK Beveren attack 1.26 / defence 0.84, drawn from 20/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 20% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 57%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 50%, SK Beveren 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KAA Gent II's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Beveren's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.