K. Lierse S.K. 1-5 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as K. Lierse S.K. welcome SK Beveren to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K. at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — K. Lierse S.K. at 1.90 PPG versus SK Beveren's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. K. Lierse S.K. register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SK Beveren in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for K. Lierse S.K., 1 for SK Beveren and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 0–5 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 65% and SK Beveren 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 62% | SK Beveren 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 2.06 xG and SK Beveren 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.386 / defence 1.024 | SK Beveren attack 1.088 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.376. K. Lierse S.K. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 K. Lierse S.K. games / 40 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Draw 22% | SK Beveren 28%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | SK Beveren 3.57. K. Lierse S.K. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is K. Lierse S.K. at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 60% | SK Beveren 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Draw 22% | SK Beveren 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 2.06 / SK Beveren 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.386 / def 1.024 | SK Beveren attack 1.088 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.53
SK Beveren xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
K. Lierse S.K. 1 - 5 SK Beveren.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 50% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
Record (1 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 0W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.39x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
50%
2.02
22%
4.54
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.59
1.53
SK Beveren xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
4%
27.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.53 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 40 games, going 16W 10D 14L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.62 PPG from 40 outings (19W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.45 PPG, SK Beveren on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 10W 5D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.80 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 19W 8D 13L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or SK Beveren away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.75 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
9
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, SK Beveren have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 65%, SK Beveren 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for K. Lierse S.K. and 70% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 55% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 70% of SK Beveren's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 1-5 hammering of K. Lierse S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-5 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 2.06 xG and SK Beveren 1.53 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SK Beveren outscored their 1.53 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.39 / defence 1.02 against SK Beveren attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Draw 22% | SK Beveren 28%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual SK Beveren win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 62%, SK Beveren 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.45 PPG, SK Beveren 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.