Francs Borains 2-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem encounter.

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Match Analysis

Francs Borains host Zulte Waregem at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 25 February 2024 at 18:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Francs Borains have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Zulte Waregem — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form points away from home here. Zulte Waregem's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Francs Borains's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Francs Borains have won 1, Zulte Waregem 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Francs Borains 3–1 Zulte Waregem — a Francs Borains win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Francs Borains trading profile (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Zulte Waregem trading profile (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 41% versus Zulte Waregem 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 54% | Zulte Waregem 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.10 xG and Zulte Waregem 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.938 / defence 1.108 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.228 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.466. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack rating of 1.228, which lifts their away xG to 2.00. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 22 games and Zulte Waregem's last 22.

Result probabilities: Francs Borains 20% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 58%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 4.90 | Draw 4.66 | Zulte Waregem 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Francs Borains's last 10 home games and Zulte Waregem's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Francs Borains 30% (last 10 home games) | Zulte Waregem 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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