Francs Borains 0-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Francs Borains welcome SK Beveren to Stade Robert Urbain. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Robert Urbain this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Francs Borains at 1.10 PPG versus SK Beveren's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Francs Borains have won 1, SK Beveren 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–4 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SK Beveren trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 54% versus SK Beveren 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 67% | SK Beveren 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.44 xG and SK Beveren 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.941 / defence 1.210 | SK Beveren attack 0.778 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.370. Data: 46 Francs Borains games / 47 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 41% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 34%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | SK Beveren 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Francs Borains offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 70% | SK Beveren 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 41% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Francs Borains 1.44 / SK Beveren 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.941 / def 1.210 | SK Beveren attack 0.778 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SK Beveren xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs SK Beveren kick off?
Francs Borains vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Francs Borains 0 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Francs Borains vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs SK Beveren part of?
Francs Borains vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 41% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Francs Borains and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and SK Beveren?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 2W.
What form are Francs Borains and SK Beveren in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.91
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.73
1.29
SK Beveren xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.29 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 14W 7D 25L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 19W 12D 15L from 46 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (6W 4D 12L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 8W 5D 9L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.33 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 14W 7D 25L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 19W 12D 15L in their last 46 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.00 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and SK Beveren runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when SK Beveren won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Francs Borains's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and SK Beveren?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, SK Beveren have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 54%, SK Beveren 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Francs Borains) and 50% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 41%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 32% of games; SK Beveren in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 36% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Francs Borains's matches and 50% of SK Beveren's.
Do Francs Borains and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Francs Borains's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 18, as Francs Borains and SK Beveren drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.44 xG and SK Beveren 1.29 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SK Beveren landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against SK Beveren attack 0.78 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 41% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 34%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 67%, SK Beveren 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SK Beveren's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.