Francs Borains 0-1 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seraing United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs Seraing United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Francs Borains welcome Seraing United to Stade Robert Urbain. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Francs Borains — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Seraing United stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Seraing United have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Francs Borains at 0.70 PPG versus Seraing United's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Francs Borains register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Seraing United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Francs Borains, 1 for Seraing United and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 5–1 with Francs Borains winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Seraing United in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Francs Borains 56% and Seraing United 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 67% | Seraing United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.94 xG and Seraing United 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.835 / defence 1.173 | Seraing United attack 0.882 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.326. Data: 39 Francs Borains games / 39 Seraing United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 26% | Draw 28% | Seraing United 47%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Seraing United 2.13. Seraing United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Seraing United at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Seraing United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Francs Borains 70% | Seraing United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Seraing United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 26% | Draw 28% | Seraing United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Francs Borains 0.94 / Seraing United 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.835 / def 1.173 | Seraing United attack 0.882 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Seraing United (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Seraing United xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Seraing United kick off?
Francs Borains vs Seraing United kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Seraing United?
Francs Borains 0 - 1 Seraing United.
Where is Francs Borains vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Seraing United part of?
Francs Borains vs Seraing United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 26% chance of winning, Seraing United a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Seraing United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Francs Borains and Seraing United will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Seraing United?
Record (2 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 0 | Seraing United 1W.
What form are Francs Borains and Seraing United in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Seraing United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Francs Borains vs Seraing United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Francs Borains's attack rating (0.83) and Seraing United's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Seraing United's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seraing United Win
26%
3.88
28%
3.63
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.32
1.37
Seraing United xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.37 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Seraing United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 6D 22L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seraing United's form line: 7W 13D 19L from 39 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Francs Borains on 1.00 PPG, Seraing United on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L).
On the road, Seraing United have gone 4W 8D 7L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Francs Borains are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 1.00 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Seraing United in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Seraing United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Seraing United in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 11W 6D 22L in their last 39 games (1.00 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 7W 13D 19L in their last 39 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Seraing United away?
Seraing United's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.95 PPG; Seraing United away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2024, when Francs Borains won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Francs Borains's record when hosting Seraing United specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
2
Draws
3
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Seraing United?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, Seraing United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Seraing United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Seraing United 4-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Seraing United?
Seraing United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Seraing United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 53%, Seraing United 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Francs Borains) and 37% (Seraing United).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains have failed to score in 32% of games; Seraing United in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Seraing United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Francs Borains's games and 63% of Seraing United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Francs Borains vs Seraing United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Francs Borains's recent games and 37% of Seraing United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Seraing United tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Seraing United in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Seraing United edge out Francs Borains 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seraing United beat Francs Borains 0-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.94 xG and Seraing United 1.37 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Francs Borains fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Seraing United attack 0.88 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 26% | Draw 28% | Seraing United 47%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 67%, Seraing United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Seraing United's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.00 PPG, Seraing United 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Seraing United win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Seraing United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.