Francs Borains 0-0 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs RWDM fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host RWDM at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
RWDM — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Francs Borains at 1.20 PPG versus RWDM's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Francs Borains have won 1, RWDM 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Francs Borains winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RWDM trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 48% versus RWDM 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 54% | RWDM 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.19 xG and RWDM 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.849 / defence 0.819 | RWDM attack 1.039 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.335. Data: 50 Francs Borains games / 51 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 37% | Draw 28% | RWDM 35%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | RWDM 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Francs Borains offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 10% | RWDM 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 37% | Draw 28% | RWDM 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Francs Borains 1.19 / RWDM 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.849 / def 0.819 | RWDM attack 1.039 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.14
RWDM xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs RWDM kick off?
Francs Borains vs RWDM kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Francs Borains 0 - 0 RWDM.
Where is Francs Borains vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs RWDM part of?
Francs Borains vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 37% chance of winning, RWDM a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Francs Borains and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and RWDM?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 0 | RWDM 2W.
What form are Francs Borains and RWDM in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. RWDM (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against RWDM's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.55
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.33
1.14
RWDM xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.14 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 15W 9D 26L from 50 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RWDM, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 16L across 50 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RWDM by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 7W 5D 12L from 24 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RWDM's away record stands at 10W 6D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Francs Borains are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.58 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: RWDM in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and RWDM in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 15W 9D 26L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while RWDM have gone 24W 10D 16L in their last 50 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.08 PPG; RWDM away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or RWDM been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, RWDM in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Francs Borains's record when hosting RWDM specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
2
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and RWDM?
From 4 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, RWDM have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-0 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and RWDM?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 46%, RWDM 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Francs Borains) and 50% (RWDM).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; RWDM in 38%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play RWDM?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 50% of RWDM's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Francs Borains's recent games and 50% of RWDM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and RWDM tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, RWDM in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Francs Borains's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 24, as Francs Borains and RWDM drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.19 xG and RWDM 1.14 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.2 short of their projected output. RWDM landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against RWDM attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 37% | Draw 28% | RWDM 35%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 54%, RWDM 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RWDM's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.