Excelsior Virton 0-4 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Excelsior Virton welcome SK Beveren to Stade Yvan Georges. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Excelsior Virton — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior Virton's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Stade Yvan Georges this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, SK Beveren have posted 4W 3D 1L from 8 away outings — 1.88 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Excelsior Virton, 2 for SK Beveren and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior Virton in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior Virton 50% versus SK Beveren 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 44% | SK Beveren 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 0.84 xG and SK Beveren 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.736 / defence 1.221 | SK Beveren attack 0.905 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.650. Excelsior Virton's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Excelsior Virton games / 16 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 14% | Draw 29% | SK Beveren 57%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 7.14 | Draw 3.45 | SK Beveren 1.75. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior Virton 50% | SK Beveren 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 14% | Draw 29% | SK Beveren 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Excelsior Virton 0.84 / SK Beveren 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.736 / def 1.221 | SK Beveren attack 0.905 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.650 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.82
SK Beveren xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren?
Excelsior Virton 0 - 4 SK Beveren.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren part of?
Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 14% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 57% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Excelsior Virton and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and SK Beveren?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior Virton 0W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 2W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and SK Beveren in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Excelsior Virton's attack at 0.74x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Excelsior Virton's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
14%
7.30
29%
3.46
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.67
1.82
SK Beveren xG
7.30
14%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
16%
6.19
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
2%
45.22
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.82 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior Virton's recent record stands at 3W 5D 8L from 16 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 6L across 16 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior Virton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Excelsior Virton have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Beveren's away record stands at 4W 3D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.81 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 1.00 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jan 2022, when SK Beveren won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior Virton's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Excelsior Virton
2
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and SK Beveren?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 0, SK Beveren have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2022, when Excelsior Virton 0-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 50%, SK Beveren 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Excelsior Virton) and 62% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 38%; Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Excelsior Virton's games and 62% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior Virton vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Excelsior Virton's matches and 62% of SK Beveren's.
Do Excelsior Virton and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Excelsior Virton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Excelsior Virton 0-4 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 0.84 xG and SK Beveren 1.82 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior Virton fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SK Beveren outscored their 1.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.74 / defence 1.22 against SK Beveren attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 14% | Draw 29% | SK Beveren 57%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 44%, SK Beveren 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SK Beveren's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.