Dender 0-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and KRC Genk II meet at Dender Football Complex in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dender (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender's home record at Dender Football Complex: 2W 0D 7L from 9 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dender have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, KRC Genk II in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dender, 0 for KRC Genk II and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Dender winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dender — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 59% versus KRC Genk II 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 47% | KRC Genk II 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.96 xG and KRC Genk II 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.961 / defence 1.476 | KRC Genk II attack 0.731 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.483. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Dender's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Dender games / 17 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 46% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 32%. Fair-value odds: Dender 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | KRC Genk II 3.12. Dender hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dender as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dender if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Dender 67% | KRC Genk II 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 46% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Dender 1.96 / KRC Genk II 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.961 / def 1.476 | KRC Genk II attack 0.731 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Dender (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.60
KRC Genk II xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Dender vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 24 January 2023 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs KRC Genk II?
Dender 0 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is Dender vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs KRC Genk II part of?
Dender vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 46% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Dender and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and KRC Genk II?
Record (1 meetings): Dender 1W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Dender and KRC Genk II in?
Dender (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dender's attack at 0.96x the league average against KRC Genk II's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.73x) against Dender's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
46%
2.16
22%
4.60
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Dender xG
Total xG
3.56
1.60
KRC Genk II xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
5%
22.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Dender and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Dender and 1.60 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dender come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 3D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KRC Genk II sit at 0.71 PPG from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Dender against 0.71 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Dender's home form reads 2W 0D 6L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, KRC Genk II have taken 0.25 points per game from 8 outings (0W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of KRC Genk II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dender are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.18 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or KRC Genk II away?
Dender's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 0.75 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
KRC Genk II have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dender won 0-4 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dender have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dender
0
Draws
3
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Dender have won 3, KRC Genk II have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dender and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when KRC Genk II 2-1 Dender.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Dender, 75% for KRC Genk II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dender and 75% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dender have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Dender's games and 75% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dender's matches and 75% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Dender and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KRC Genk II defy the odds to beat Dender 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat Dender 0-1 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.96 xG and KRC Genk II 1.60 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dender fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.96 / defence 1.48 against KRC Genk II attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 46% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 32%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual KRC Genk II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 47%, KRC Genk II 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.06 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KRC Genk II win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.